This is a series of evaluations that will be done this offseason on every player that closed the season on the 40-man roster for the Minnesota Twins, with one appearing every weekday from now until each player has been evaluated. The plan is to start with Mr. Albers and move all the way through the pitchers, then to the catchers, infielders, outfielders and finally those listed as designated hitters on the club’s official MLB.com roster. That means we’ll wrap it up with Miguel Sano sometime in the first week of December.
- Name: Glen Perkins
- 2016 Role: Barely pitched due to a shoulder injury that frankly will most likely threaten his career moving forward.
- Expected 2017 Role: All depends on the healing process. Won’t close to start the season, and a return to that role in the future seems likely, but if he can even be a solid reliever again, that’s a huge win for the Twins — and more importantly, him.
- MLB Stats: 0.00 ERA (1.65 FIP) in 2 innings, three strikeouts, two walks, 0.1 fWAR.
- MiLB Stats: N/A
- Contract Status: Will make $6.5 million in 2017, and has a 2018 team option at the same cost that’ll almost certainly be declined barring some sort of miracle.
2016 Lowdown:
It was clear from the get-go that Perkins wasn’t right this season. He’d been in the midst of a couple years in a row of declining velocity — nothing uncommon for any 30-something pitcher — but in early-season action this year, his fastball was far closer to the 91-92 mph range he was in as a starter as opposed to the 94-95 marks he was accustomed to in recent years.
Perkins was lifted after 21 pitches in his second appearance of the season, coming out of the game in Kansas City with what he told reporters was a “burning sensation” on the back of his left shoulder. A few days later he was placed on the disabled list with a left shoulder strain, with the team publicly holding out optimism that he’d return as soon as eligible.
Instead, he never returned.
Perkins went and got a second opinion from Dr. Timothy Kremchek in Cincinnati, a physician not affiliated with the Twins who suggested that Perkins rest and rehab his shoulder for the time being, and that surgery didn’t appear to be necessary. Perkins didn’t resume throwing until mid-May, and was scheduled to throw his first bullpen on May 23. That didn’t happen, as he felt stiffness playing long toss the week before, and it pushed him back about a week on his throwing program. Around this time, the Twins put him on the 60-day DL as a procedural move to make room for Buddy Boshers on the 40-man roster.
Perkins threw a successful bullpen in early June, and a second one a few days later, but the third one was cut short when he felt more discomfort in the shoulder in mid-June. Five days later, the Twins announced that Perkins would miss the rest of the season with a torn labrum and rotator cuff issues. Perkins wound up undergoing surgery on June 23 with Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles, with the hope that he’d be ready for spring training in 2017. Ultimately, Perkins’ labrum had become detached from the bone, which made it an even more invasive surgery than expected, which may additionally affect his timeline for return.
Perkins told Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press at the end of the season that he was making progress in his recovery, but that he wasn’t throwing yet. Manager Paul Molitor told Berardino that the team is aware of the “odds and numbers on those surgeries for people,” which would seem to suggest that it’s unlikely Perkins ever returns to form, if at all. Berardino floated a 10 percent success rate, not only in the newspaper but on a recent episode of Midwest Swing.
LISTEN: Mike Berardino on the most recent episode of Midwest Swing.
A quick look at a database on BaseballHeatMaps.com reveals a few names who’ve had labrum surgery in the recent past (years may indicate either surgery, or season where extensive time was spent on DL):
- Rangers shortstop Jurickson Profar (2015)
- White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia (2014)
- Mets pitcher Eric Beaulac (2013)
- Angels pitcher Andrew Taylor (2013)
- Yankees pitcher Brad Meyers (2012)
- Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche (2011)
- Yankees pitcher Damaso Marte (2011)
- Rays pitcher J.P. Howell (2010)
I want to focus mostly on Marte and Howell, not because I’m certain that their injuries are the same, but at least from a basis of left-handed relievers who were fairly solid pitchers and whether or not they were able to come back. Marte’s injury was only inflammation, but he never made it back. He was 35 at the time he went down due to the injury, while Perkins is turning 34 next March.
Howell is more encouraging, in that he’s still trucking along as a decent reliever — 4.09 ERA (3.50 FIP) in 50.2 innings this season with the Dodgers with 7.8 K/9 and just 2.7 BB/9. Before the surgery, Howell had a 4.47 ERA in 322 innings, while after he’s at 2.98 in 286.2 innings. That’s good, right?
Well, sort of. His pre-surgery numbers tell a story of a bad starter who became a great reliever. After posting an awful 7.59 ERA in 10 starts in his age-24 season, Howell was turned into a full-time reliever by the Rays, and he responded with two phenomenal seasons in 2009 and 2010, where he had a combined 2.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a solid 9.9 K/9. Howell missed all of 2010 with the labrum issue, and came back in 2011 — and got throttled. Howell was just in his age-28 season, but posted a 6.16 ERA with three fewer strikeouts per nine (7.6) than his previous year pre-surgery (10.7) with a lot more walks (5.3 BB/9).
He’s probably the second- or third-most dominant closer in Twins history, depending on where you fall in your appreciation for Rick Aguilera behind Joe Nathan.
Eventually everything cooled down for Howell, who had a fairly good farewell season with the Rays the next year — 3.04 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9. The years of being a strikeout-per-inning guy were mostly gone, and that can make his command woes a bit more magnified. He’s typically in the high-3.0s to low-4.0s in walks per nine which can be assuaged with a strong strikeout rate. When a guy is in the 7.0s however, that’s more like a replacement-level reliever.
Still, Howell eventually got back to 8.8 K/9 — it came with a 4.6 BB/9, for what it’s worth — and on Howell’s side was that he was never a flamethrower. On his sinker before surgery, he was 86-87 mph before the injury, and has been the same since except for this year where it crept down to 85.8, though he did incorporate a four-seamer that was closer to that 87 mph mark. With Perkins, it’s truly hard to say how his stuff would play in the high-80s. You can’t just take his numbers as a starting pitcher where he was frequently 89-92 and transpose them, because he still won’t be facing hitters multiple times per game, but it would seem likely the days of him being a flamethrower out of the pen would be over.
But nothing is guaranteed. The human body is weird. Howell held his velocity when he came back, and no matter who unimpressive his raw velocity looks, it’s still a statistical fact. Sure, it hurts Perkins to be nearly six years older while throwing about 6 mph harder, but that’s just part of the deal — we have no idea what the recuperation will be like.
If this is it for Perkins, it was a hell of a run. He’s probably the second- or third-most dominant closer in Twins history, depending on where you fall in your appreciation for Rick Aguilera behind Joe Nathan.
Grade: Incomplete. It’ll be a miracle if he reaches where he was pre-injury, but we’re pulling for him.
