Kennys Vargas isn’t the only Minnesota Twins player with some interesting things going on behind the scenes statistically. A couple of Twins relievers have some interesting secondary statistics, and potentially even more intriguing quotes about what has made them tick this season.
One of those relievers is Michael Tonkin, who has quietly put together a solid season working in middle relief for the Twins in his first extended exposure to the big leagues. In fact, nearly half of his 105.1 big league innings have come this year (51.2 through Sunday’s game), and that continuity has been big for his production on the field, he told Cold Omaha early last week.
“I think being here more and being in the routine of being here every single day helps with the consistency, you know,” Tonkin said. “It helps with being in the strike zone.” That’s in reference to Tonkin’s 2.4 walks per nine innings, a reasonable sum compared to other pitchers who possess his sort of raw stuff. Fangraphs’ PITCHf/x has Tonkin average 93.9 mph on his fastball this season — trailing only Ryan Pressly (95.0) and Trevor May (94.1) among Twins bullpen mainstays this season.
Tonkin said earlier in the season that it’s been a long time since he’s thrown a two-seamer in any meaningful sample size
In coordination with his solid walk rate, Tonkin’s strikeout rate has spiked up to 10.8 per nine innings this season. That’s his highest mark since a brief stint in Double-A back in 2013. Among 87 MLB relievers with at least 40 innings pitched, Tonkin’s strikeout rate ranks 19th, ahead of guys like Zach Britton, Brad Brach and David Robertson.
So, what’s clicking for Tonkin in that respect?
“I don’t know,” Tonkin said. “I think it’s probably because I’m using more four-seam fastball a lot more than I had in the past. With my four-seam, I get more swings and misses. I get ahead of guys more than with the two-seam.”
Hold up, what was that? His four-seamer? For swinging strikes? Few guys get much in the way of swinging strikes on their four-seamer, and beyond that….PITCHf/x says Tonkin throws a two-seamer. What gives?
Tonkin himself told Cold Omaha earlier in the season that it’s been a long time since he’s thrown a two-seamer in any meaningful sample size. Rather, it’s the natural movement on his four-seam fastball that triggers the PITCHf/x algorithm to read it as a two-seamer. So if anyone tells you Tonkin has a straight fastball….they’re blowing smoke.
Tonkin’s fastball has resulted in a swinging-strike rate of 10.2 percent, which is a high rate for any fastball, let alone a four-seamer. But that movement has also allowed Tonkin to be a capable reliever with just a two-pitch repertoire. He hasn’t tweaked anything regarding the delivery or grip on the ball, but now he feels he can use it in pretty much any count. “The four-seam is pretty much the same for me as it was before,” Tonkin said. “It’s just that before I used it 0-2, 1-2. That’s pretty much it. Now I pretty much use it every fastball count, or every time I’m throwing a fastball. It makes a big difference, I think.”
Tonkin’s slider has also been very good this season. He’s using it more than ever (29.4 percent of his pitches), with a 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate on it. Opposing batters are hitting just .180/.226/.440 on the pitch, with the biggest issue that he’s allowed four home runs on it, leading to the high slugging percentage. In short, it’s difficult to square up, but has the tendency to fly when someone does.
“Being more comfortable throwing it more,” Tonkin said as a reason for for why the secondary numbers on the slider have spiked. “It’s the consistency of being here that helps, too,” he reiterated. “Not going back and forth as much, it’s a little different. It’s kind of understated, but it does make a difference.”
The Twins still haven’t placed Tonkin into as many high-leverage situations as his number might suggest — holding runners and a bit of a home run tendency hurt here — but for the role he’s been put it, he’s done a fine job.
Another reliever who has snuck under the radar is lefty Buddy Boshers. And while he doesn’t still boast the minuscule ERA he had before being sent back to Triple-A, his season numbers still stand pretty well on their own. He’s got a 3.00 ERA (2.24 FIP) with a 9.5 K/9 mark and just 1.5 BB/9.
Like the recently-traded Fernando Abad, Boshers has done a better job against lefties (.545 OPS) than righties (.727), but overall there are some things in his secondary numbers that look rather good. PITCHf/x says Boshers is mostly an unconventional sinker-curve guy with the occasional changeup.
Boshers, well, you could say he disputes that designation. “Actually, I don’t know where the sinker came from,” Boshers said. “I’ve never thrown a sinker in my life. I haven’t thrown a two-seamer in probably four years. Whatever works for them, I guess.” Basically, like Tonkin, Boshers says he throws a true four-seam fastball, with the run naturally giving it that two-seam-y vibe.
Boshers’ curve has been the real money maker for him this season
The fastball isn’t a particularly dominant offering for most pitchers, and Boshers is no exception as opposing batters have an .871 OPS off it. But the swinging-strike rate for the pitch is 8.9 percent, which is very good for a four-seamer. Boshers explains: “The only thing I can probably guess is being able to throw it to both sides of the plate. In the past I’ve been predominantly in to righties/away from lefties. In the past year and a half, I’ve really forced myself to establish the arm-side fastball, and it’s been a big pitch for me, because it adds another side of the plate.”
Boshers’ curve has been the real money maker for him this season. It carries an excellent 19 percent whiff rate, and opposing batters are hitting just .161/.161/.290 against it. By design, Boshers wants it to be a top-down curve — called 12-to-6 which is reminiscent of the hands on a clock — which allows him not only to stay on top of the ball, but also gives him another pitch trajectory to compliment the natural run of his fastball.
“I want my break to be 12-6 (on the curve),” Boshers said. “Because I want to think right over top of the ball. I want my four-seam and my curveball spins to be identical, just in different directions. If I can get the ball to go straight over the top forward for a breaking ball, and straight over the top backwards for a fastball, then it’s doing this (*motions identical spin, first over the top and then in reverse*), not doing this (*motions with slider side-to-side action*). Up and down is what I’m looking for on a breaking ball. It happens, you get on the side of it. But I don’t want to tell myself slider, because then I get around the ball. I want to stay on top of it.”
Why the disdain for the slider? “Usually the break is still good,” Boshers said. “But mentally for me I just have to tell myself curveball and not slider. It’s one of those weird things that mentally helps you throw the ball where you want it.”
That would seem to be pretty foundational for a pitcher, no?
So what about the change-up? Is that just a show-me pitch? Over the past few years it has been for Boshers, he said, but it also hearkens back to his time working as a starter, and an old adage that you’ll oftentimes hear outside of the game as well.
“When I was with the Angels I was predominantly a lefty-lefty guy….a lefty specialist,” Boshers said. “It’s one of those things where if you don’t use it, you lose it (re: the changeup). So, I went down to winter ball the last two years and was kind of a swingman, and you really need a third pitch as a starter. That helped me force myself to throw it and stuff like that. I changed my grip, so it’s kind of like a splitter. Basically, it’s a split-change. It’s harder, but it’s got good movement. It’s coming along for me. I’m starting to get confidence in it.”
So Boshers said the pitch has good movement, but what sort of movement? “That’s the inconsistent part,” he said. “At times it’s straight down, at times it takes off. I work on it every day. Ideally, it would sink. My fastball is going to run and sink a but, but with the split change I want it to just sink. If I get contact, I want it to be on the top half of the ball.”
With Jose Berrios promoted to the Twins and starting Monday, a possible benefactor to any further move the Twins might make with a pitcher the rest of the year could be non-roster Red Wings starter Jason Wheeler. Wheeler, who goes 6-foot-6 and 255 lbs., was taken off the 40-man roster last year after a rough season at Rochester (6.58 ERA, 4.6 K/9, 1.64 WHIP), but has rebounded with a really nice campaign. The Twins sent him back to Chattanooga for a four-start stint (1.88 ERA), and since then he’s made 17 starts with Triple-A Rochester and looks like a brand-new man.
He’s got a 2.70 ERA, vastly improved 7.5 K/9 and a 1.13 WHIP. Halving your ERA from one year to the next is no joke, and he’s held opposing batters to just a .233/.274/.345 line this year. July was one of his better months of the season as well, as he pitched to a 2.86 ERA and 8.6 K/9 after a shakier month of June (4.26 ERA).
A Twins source told Cold Omaha that Wheeler is a fastball-slider-changeup guy, who averages in the low 90s with his fastball but changes speeds effectively. “His slider has been better this year, and he’s done a better job of keeping his fastball down,” the source added. They also said Wheeler has built off last year’s experience, and added confidence as the season has gone along with success at Triple-A. Some reports have suggested Wheeler profiles as a groundball sort of pitcher, but the source was less sure about that.
It would make sense to get a look at Wheeler over the rest of the season as well, as the big lefty is eligible for minor league free agency following the season, according to Twins Daily. (EDIT: Jeremy Nygaard of Twins Daily clarified that it’s after 2017 that Wheeler is up for minor league free agency, not before. There was a little confusion, as Baseball Reference lists free agency years as the winter before, while Twins Daily does the winter of.)
