Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Jacksonville Jaguars took a downward turn after their fifth game.
A 2-3 start for Jacksonville has turned into a 2-10 record with seven consecutive losses which have soured the fan base against quarterback Blake Bortles and head coach Gus Bradley. The Vikings started 5-0 and now sit at 6-6, and their descent has been well chronicled.
For both these teams that have won just a single game in their last 14 collectively, a declining run defense has been one culprit. Both teams started out well against the run, only to allow over 100 yards rushing in five of the last seven games. Jacksonville has allowed 125 yards per game in that span; the Vikings, 122.
It’s possible whichever run defense holds up best could have an edge in Sunday’s game. The Vikings have yet to truly break through in the run game offensively this year with only three runs over 20 yards and none over 30. Minnesota has just one game with over 100 yards rushing, a feat which they barely accomplished with 104 yards against New York on Oct. 3. But after being stuck below 3.0 yards per carry for much of the season – rare territory for even the worst rushing team – Minnesota turned 35 attempts into 169 yards over the past two weeks to put it right at 3.0 for the season. More importantly, the 4.8 yards per carry over the past two weeks is actually quite good, meaning the timing could be ideal for a big game on the ground.
It’s possible whichever run defense holds up best could have an edge in Sunday’s game.
The one caveat to the increased success on the ground has been a reluctance to run the ball too many times. Minnesota dropped back 50 times against Dallas and only rushed on 19 plays. Unlike last year’s offense, the run this season has been a complement to the pass, instead of the other way around. “You can never lose sight of the fact that you need to score points,” said offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. “However you do that, running or throwing, it’s important that you establish some form of a balance, and that includes running the football, whatever balance that may be.”
It’s not as if the Jaguars have been good against the run in the first three quarters, only to surrender yardage late when teams are grinding the clock down (as Minnesota has). The opposite is actually true. Yes, teams have run the ball far more in the fourth quarter against Jacksonville than any other quarter, but only at 2.9 yards per carry. The Jags have been extremely poor in the first three quarters, however, allowing 1,052 yards in those three quarters alone. That’s significantly more than the Vikings have gained on the ground all season.
Third downs have not been kind to Jacksonville either with opponents gaining 5.7 yards per rush (in fairness, Minnesota is much worse at 7.2). Take a look at this 3rd-and-13 at Tennessee, however. Jacksonville is out of the two-minute warning and has the Titans pinned on their own 3-yard line in what seems to be a fairly clear running situation. The Jaguars didn’t do much to guard the sticks here, putting nine men in the box, but those nine men get manhandled as DeMarco Murray runs for 19 yards.
Jags giving up 5.7 ypc on third down runs. How about allowing this 3rd and 13 with nine men in the box vs Tennessee? pic.twitter.com/NNiLGo6fjx
— Sam Ekstrom (@SamEkstrom) December 9, 2016
This was one of 22 first-down conversions on third-down runs against Jacksonville this season. The Jaguars have allowed the ninth-most rushing first downs this season and have the eighth-highest rushing touchdown percentage against. In that same vein, the Vikings are looking to use the ground game more effectively to finish drives. “We just have to do a better job running it when we get in the red zone,” said Zimmer. “We have to do a better job, obviously, of eliminating some of these bad plays.”
The Jacksonville linebackers appear to be easily moved out of the way when linemen get to their second assignment and running backs get into the second level. The tackle numbers for Telvin Smith and Paul Posluszny are fine, but they rarely offer much resistance during explosive run plays for the opposition. Myles Jack has also been fairly anonymous this year after receiving plenty of first-round steam and eventually falling to the second round in last spring’s draft.
Credit Houston’s offensive line on the Lamar Miller run below. The Vikings need more of this. They’ve had very few opportunities to displace blockers at the second level because of their inability to get McKinnon/Asiata through the line of scrimmage, as well as some poor cutting decisions by the runners. Notice, though, how easily Smith (#50) gets moved here.
On the other side, I do think Jacksonville can be run on. Five of last seven games allowing 100+. pic.twitter.com/VGaqNzPqUX
— Sam Ekstrom (@SamEkstrom) December 9, 2016
Complete reliance on the pass has not led to much success for the Vikings, but a rejuvenated running game could bolster them through the final four games. The stars could be aligned on Sunday, but Zimmer is approaching Sunday’s foe with a healthy dose of respect. “They’re very active. Posluszny makes a lot of tackles. [Malik] Jackson is very active inside. They hit and get off blocks quickly. They play a lot of extra guys in the box. They’re pretty darn good.”
INJURY REPORT
The Vikings ruled out C Joe Berger (concussion), S Harrison Smith (ankle) and DT Sharrif Floyd (knee). Nick Easton will replace Berger, while Smith will be spelled by either Anthony Harris or Jayron Kearse – possibly a combination of both.
The Jaguars will be without WR Allen Hurns, RB Denard Robinson, TE Julius Thomas, DL Jared Odrick and S Peyton Thompson.
